Progreso 39%Draw 28%Cerro Largo 33%Expected goals 1.21 – 0.99
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultProgreso to win ✗39% · @2.52
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.45
Progreso vs Cerro Largo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progreso welcome Cerro Largo to Parque Abraham Paladino for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Sunday 3 May (13:30 WAT). In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Cerro Largo are 15th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Progreso, last 4: LDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Defensor Sporting, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Cerro Largo, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Boston River, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Cerro Largo, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.2 xG, Cerro Largo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 39%, draw 28%, Cerro Largo 33%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.93.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–1 Cerro Largo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso39%fair 2.57 · @2.52
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @3.10
Cerro Largo33%fair 3.02 · @2.72
2.20Expected goals
1.21Progreso xG
0.99Cerro Largo xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.2 – 1.0 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Progreso
Cerro Largo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-10%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.21
0.85
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progreso to win✗
39%
2.57
2.52
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.93
Draw no bet
Progreso (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Cerro Largo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Progreso to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Progreso / FT Progreso✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.45
–
Recent results
Progreso – last 4
LDDL
27 Apr
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Cerro Largo – last 6
LDDLWW
20 Apr
@ Boston River
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Cerro
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Albion FC
2–2
D
25 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–3
L
20 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Central Espanol
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Cerro Largo.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Progreso vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Progreso have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Cerro Largo 33%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Cerro Largo?
Progreso vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
