Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✓47% · @1.91
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✓75% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.42
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 12 May the First League brings Cherno More Varna against Lokomotiv Plovdiv at Ticha Stadium. Kick-off: 15:45 WAT. In the table, Cherno More Varna are 9th, lower half, on 13 points after 14 matches; Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th (lower half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Cherno More Varna, last 5: DWLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Arda Kardzhali, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Arda Kardzhali, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Cherno More Varna.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Apr 2026) it ended Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Cherno More Varna. The last 2 head-to-heads: Cherno More Varna 1 win, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 1.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cherno More Varna 1.1 xG, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cherno More Varna 47%, draw 29%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 25%.
Lower-risk option: Cherno More Varna or draw (75%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.93.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cherno More Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cherno More Varna47%fair 2.15 · @1.91
Draw29%fair 3.47 · @3.20
Lokomotiv Plovdiv25%fair 4.07 · @3.75
2.01Expected goals
1.11Cherno More Varna xG
0.90Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
52%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 1.1 – 0.9 Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 25%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Ticha Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
