Value bet: Mebrat Hayl to win @ 3.60 – our chance 29% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMekelakeya to win ✓37% · @2.15
Double chanceMekelakeya or draw ✓71% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓17% · fair 5.83
Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mekelakeya travel to face Mebrat Hayl on Wednesday 29 April in the Premier League – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT. In the table, Mebrat Hayl are 8th, upper half, on 7 points after 5 matches; Mekelakeya are 2nd (among the top four) with 10. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mebrat Hayl, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Ethiopian Medhin, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Mekelakeya, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Awassa Kenema, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mebrat Hayl 0.7 xG, Mekelakeya 0.8 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 80% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mebrat Hayl 29%, draw 33%, Mekelakeya 37%.
Lower-risk option: Mekelakeya or draw (71%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Mebrat Hayl to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mekelakeya or draw (71%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Mekelakeya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mebrat Hayl29%fair 3.39 · @3.60
Draw33%fair 3.00 · @2.60
Mekelakeya37%fair 2.69 · @2.15
1.55Expected goals
0.74Mebrat Hayl xG
0.81Mekelakeya xG
44%Both score
20%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–021%
0–117%
1–016%
1–113%
0–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Mebrat Hayl 0.7 – 0.8 Mekelakeya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mekelakeya to win✓
37%
2.69
2.15
Double chance
Mekelakeya or draw✓
71%
1.42
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.44
Draw no bet
Mekelakeya (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Mebrat Hayl +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Mekelakeya to score first✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
17%
5.83
–
Recent results
Mebrat Hayl – last 6
DWLDWW
20 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Kedus Giorgis
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Bahardar
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Negelle Arsi
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Ethiopia Bunna
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mekelakeya – last 6
DWWDDD
19 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
3–1
W
3 Apr
vs Suhul Shire
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mebrat Hayl and Mekelakeya.
What is the prediction for Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
Our pick is Mekelakeya or draw with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
On our numbers Mebrat Hayl have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Mekelakeya 37%.
How many goals will there be in Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 20% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
Our predicted score is Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Mekelakeya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dire Dawa Kenema1