Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNegelle Arsi to win ✓41% · @2.50
Double chanceNegelle Arsi or draw ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗67% · fair 1.49
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.98
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negelle Arsi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Welwalo Adigrat Uni welcome Negelle Arsi for a Premier League fixture on Wednesday 6 May (16:00 WAT). In the table, Welwalo Adigrat Uni are 17th, in the drop zone, on 1 points after 2 matches; Negelle Arsi are 1st (leading the league) with 11.
Current form
Welwalo Adigrat Uni, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Ethiopia Bunna, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Negelle Arsi, last 5: DDDDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Fasil Ketema, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0.9 xG, Negelle Arsi 1.2 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Welwalo Adigrat Uni 29%, draw 30%, Negelle Arsi 41%.
Lower-risk option: Negelle Arsi or draw (71%) at 1.33.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Negelle Arsi or draw (71%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0–1 Negelle Arsi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Welwalo Adigrat Uni29%fair 3.46 · @2.90
Draw30%fair 3.31 · @2.50
Negelle Arsi41%fair 2.44 · @2.50
2.02Expected goals
0.85Welwalo Adigrat Uni xG
1.17Negelle Arsi xG
51%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–013%
1–113%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0.9 – 1.2 Negelle Arsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✓
41%
2.44
2.50
Double chance
Negelle Arsi or draw✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Negelle Arsi (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Welwalo Adigrat Uni +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Negelle Arsi to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Negelle Arsi / FT Negelle Arsi✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.98
–
Recent results
Welwalo Adigrat Uni – last 6
WLLDDW
30 Apr
@ Ethiopia Bunna
4–2
W
13 Apr
@ Mekelle Kenema
1–2
L
9 Apr
vs Welayta Dicha
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Awassa Kenema
2–2
D
8 Mar
@ Mekelakeya
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Suhul Shire
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Negelle Arsi – last 6
DDDDWL
30 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Mebrat Hayl
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Negelle Arsi.
What is the prediction for Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negelle Arsi?
Our pick is Negelle Arsi or draw with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negelle Arsi?
On our numbers Welwalo Adigrat Uni have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Negelle Arsi 41%.
How many goals will there be in Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negelle Arsi?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negelle Arsi?
Our predicted score is Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0–1 Negelle Arsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negelle Arsi?
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negelle Arsi (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
