Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNegelle Arsi to win ✓48% · @2.05
Double chanceNegelle Arsi or draw ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.40
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗67% · fair 1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.40
Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Monday 11 May: Negelle Arsi v Dire Dawa Kenema in the Premier League.
Current form
Negelle Arsi, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Welwalo Adigrat Uni, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Dire Dawa Kenema, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Ethiopia Bunna, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Negelle Arsi, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Dire Dawa Kenema.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Negelle Arsi 1.3 xG, Dire Dawa Kenema 0.8 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Negelle Arsi 48%, draw 29%, Dire Dawa Kenema 23%.
Lower-risk option: Negelle Arsi or draw (77%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.40.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Negelle Arsi or draw (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Negelle Arsi 1–0 Dire Dawa Kenema. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Negelle Arsi48%fair 2.10 · @2.05
Draw29%fair 3.46 · @2.62
Dire Dawa Kenema23%fair 4.26 · @3.80
2.03Expected goals
1.28Negelle Arsi xG
0.75Dire Dawa Kenema xG
51%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
0–013%
1–113%
2–011%
0–110%
2–18%
From our goals model: Negelle Arsi 1.3 – 0.8 Dire Dawa Kenema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✓
48%
2.10
2.05
Double chance
Negelle Arsi or draw✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
2.40 ▲
Draw no bet
Negelle Arsi (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
Dire Dawa Kenema +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Negelle Arsi to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Negelle Arsi / FT Negelle Arsi✓
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.40
–
Recent results
Negelle Arsi – last 6
WDDDDW
6 May
@ Welwalo Adigrat Uni
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Dire Dawa Kenema – last 6
DDLLWD
5 May
vs Ethiopia Bunna
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
0–2
L
15 Apr
vs Mekelakeya
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Suhul Shire
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Negelle Arsi and Dire Dawa Kenema.
What is the prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
Our pick is Negelle Arsi or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
On our numbers Negelle Arsi have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Dire Dawa Kenema 23%.
How many goals will there be in Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
Our predicted score is Negelle Arsi 1–0 Dire Dawa Kenema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
