Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Negelle Arsi travel to face Mekelakeya on Thursday 14 May in the Premier League – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Mekelakeya are 2nd, among the top four, on 10 points after 5 matches; Negelle Arsi are 1st (leading the league) with 11. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mekelakeya, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Adama Kenema, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Negelle Arsi, last 5: WWDDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Dire Dawa Kenema, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mekelakeya 1.0 xG, Negelle Arsi 0.9 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 72%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mekelakeya 37%, draw 31%, Negelle Arsi 32%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.20.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 2.20 – longer than our fair 1.97, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mekelakeya 1–1 Negelle Arsi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mekelakeya37%fair 2.71 · @2.40
Draw31%fair 3.22 · @2.62
Negelle Arsi32%fair 3.12 · @2.90
1.83Expected goals
0.97Mekelakeya xG
0.87Negelle Arsi xG
51%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Mekelakeya 1.0 – 0.9 Negelle Arsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mekelakeya to win✓
37%
2.71
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Mekelakeya (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Negelle Arsi +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Mekelakeya to score first✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
6%
15.45
–
Recent results
Mekelakeya – last 6
DWDWWD
4 May
vs Adama Kenema
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Mebrat Hayl
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
3–1
W
3 Apr
vs Suhul Shire
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Negelle Arsi – last 6
WWDDDD
11 May
vs Dire Dawa Kenema
3–0
W
6 May
@ Welwalo Adigrat Uni
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mekelakeya and Negelle Arsi.
What is the prediction for Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.20.
Who will win Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
On our numbers Mekelakeya have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Negelle Arsi 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
Our predicted score is Mekelakeya 1–1 Negelle Arsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Suhul Shire1