Celaya vs Cimarrones: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Celaya welcome Cimarrones for a Liga Premier Serie A fixture on Thursday 23 April (03:00 WAT).
Current form
Celaya, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Jaguares de Chiapas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Cimarrones, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mineros de Fresnillo, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Cimarrones, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.0 for Celaya.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celaya 1.4 xG, Cimarrones 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celaya 42%, draw 25%, Cimarrones 33%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celaya 1–1 Cimarrones. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celaya42%fair 2.40 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.35
Cimarrones33%fair 3.02 · @2.95
2.74Expected goals
1.44Celaya xG
1.30Cimarrones xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Celaya 1.4 – 1.3 Cimarrones expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celaya to win✓
42%
2.40
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.62
Draw no bet
Celaya (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Cimarrones +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Celaya to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celaya / FT Celaya✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.47
–
Recent results
Celaya – last 5
DLDWL
12 Apr
vs Jaguares de Chiapas
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Montañeses
1–5
L
22 Mar
vs Inter Playa del Carmen
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Chapulineros
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Racing de Veracruz
0–4
L
0.6Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Cimarrones – last 6
DWDWWW
19 Apr
vs Mineros de Fresnillo
1–1
D
11 Apr
@ Acatlan
4–0
W
28 Mar
vs Durango
0–0
D
22 Mar
@ Reboceros La Piedad
3–2
W
14 Mar
vs Colima
2–0
W
28 Feb
vs Los Cabos United
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celaya and Cimarrones.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Celaya vs Cimarrones?
On our numbers Celaya have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cimarrones 33%.
How many goals will there be in Celaya vs Cimarrones?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celaya vs Cimarrones?
Our predicted score is Celaya 1–1 Cimarrones, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Celaya vs Cimarrones?
Celaya vs Cimarrones (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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