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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Cimarrones v Celaya: numbers & prediction

Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico

Cimarrones

LDWDW
2–1
FT

Celaya

WDLDW
Cimarrones 49%Draw 26%Celaya 25% Expected goals 1.61 – 1.12
75%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultCimarrones to win ✓49% · @1.95
Double chanceCimarrones or draw ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.56

Cimarrones vs Celaya: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Cimarrones welcome Celaya for a Liga Premier Serie A fixture on Sunday 26 April (03:00 WAT).

Current form

Cimarrones, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Celaya, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Celaya, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cimarrones, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Cimarrones, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Celaya.

Head to head

When they last met (23 Apr 2026) it ended Celaya 2–1 Cimarrones.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Cimarrones 1.6 xG, Celaya 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 59%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Cimarrones 49%, draw 26%, Celaya 25%.
  • Lower-risk option: Cimarrones or draw (75%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cimarrones 1–1 Celaya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Cimarrones49%fair 2.03 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.45
Celaya25%fair 3.97 · @3.30
2.73Expected goals
1.61Cimarrones xG
1.12Celaya xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%

From our goals model: Cimarrones 1.6 – 1.1 Celaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCimarrones to win ✓49%2.031.95
Double chanceCimarrones or draw ✓75%1.341.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓59%1.691.70
Draw no betCimarrones (draw no bet) ✓66%1.51–
Asian handicapCelaya +1 (Asian handicap)67%1.50–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75%1.341.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓51%1.971.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓70%1.421.33
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.17–
First team to scoreCimarrones to score first55%1.82–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓42%2.41–
Half-time / full-timeHT Cimarrones / FT Cimarrones ✗29%3.41–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9%10.56–

Recent results

Cimarrones – last 6

LDWDWW
23 Apr@ Celaya1–2L
19 Aprvs Mineros de Fresnillo1–1D
11 Apr@ Acatlan4–0W
28 Marvs Durango0–0D
22 Mar@ Reboceros La Piedad3–2W
14 Marvs Colima2–0W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Celaya – last 6

WDLDWL
23 Aprvs Cimarrones2–1W
12 Aprvs Jaguares de Chiapas1–1D
29 Mar@ Montañeses1–5L
22 Marvs Inter Playa del Carmen0–0D
3 Marvs Chapulineros1–0W
22 Feb@ Racing de Veracruz0–4L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

23 Apr 2026Celaya v Cimarrones2–1
Cimarrones vs Celaya head-to-head page →

More Liga Premier Serie A predictions

League hub
FT Durango1 Zacatepec 19481 162%1.30X22%4.40216%9.60 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓
– Real Apodaca Inter Playa del Carmen 145%2.15X27%3.10228%3.20 1.4–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.44

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cimarrones vs Celaya?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Cimarrones vs Celaya?

On our numbers Cimarrones have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Celaya 25%.

How many goals will there be in Cimarrones vs Celaya?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Cimarrones vs Celaya?

Our predicted score is Cimarrones 1–1 Celaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Cimarrones vs Celaya?

Cimarrones vs Celaya (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.