Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 3.95 – our chance 30% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTigres UANL to win ✓44% · @1.92
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.31
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Tigres UANL v Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Universitario (UANL). In the table, Tigres UANL are 15th, lower half, on 15 points after 16 matches; Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd (among the top four) with 30. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tigres UANL, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Nashville SC, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Club Tijuana, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Apr 2026) it ended Tigres UANL 4–1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tigres UANL 1.3 xG, Guadalajara Chivas 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tigres UANL 44%, draw 26%, Guadalajara Chivas 30%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Guadalajara Chivas to win @3.95 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tigres UANL 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tigres UANL44%fair 2.26 · @1.92
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.40
Guadalajara Chivas30%fair 3.35 · @3.95
2.63Expected goals
1.30Tigres UANL xG
1.32Guadalajara Chivas xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tigres UANL 1.3 – 1.3 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack vs Liga MX average
-17%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-25%
Our expected goals here
1.00
1.49
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Tigres UANL have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guadalajara Chivas 30%.
How many goals will there be in Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Tigres UANL 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Universitario (UANL).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
