Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 59% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓53% · @1.88
Double chanceCruz Azul or draw ✓77% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Atlas vs Cruz Azul: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the Liga MX brings Atlas against Cruz Azul at Estadio Jalisco. Kick-off: 04:15 WAT. In the table, Atlas are 5th, upper half, on 27 points after 16 matches; Cruz Azul are 1st (leading the league) with 32.
Current form
Atlas, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Club America, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Cruz Azul, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Necaxa, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlas 1.2 xG, Cruz Azul 1.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 50% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlas 23%, draw 24%, Cruz Azul 53%.
Lower-risk option: Cruz Azul or draw (77%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.45 – longer than our fair 1.37, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlas 1–1 Cruz Azul. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlas23%fair 4.41 · @4.30
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Cruz Azul53%fair 1.87 · @1.88
3.07Expected goals
1.22Atlas xG
1.85Cruz Azul xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–16%
1–36%
From our goals model: Atlas 1.2 – 1.9 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atlas
Cruz Azul
Attack vs Liga MX average
+4%
+40%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.61
2.24
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✓
53%
1.87
1.88
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Cruz Azul (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Atlas +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.45 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
1.05
First team to score
Cruz Azul to score first✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Cruz Azul ahead at half-time✓
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✓
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Atlas – last 6
WDWDLD
26 Apr
@ Club America
1–0
W
23 Apr
vs Tigres UANL
0–0
D
20 Apr
@ Santos Laguna
1–0
W
12 Apr
vs Monterrey
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Leon
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Cruz Azul – last 6
WDDDDL
27 Apr
vs Necaxa
4–1
W
22 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Club Tijuana
1–1
D
15 Apr
vs Los Angeles FC
1–1
D
12 Apr
@ Club America
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Los Angeles FC
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlas and Cruz Azul.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Atlas have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cruz Azul 53%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Atlas 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
Atlas vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 04:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
