Aris vs AEK Larnaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 22 May the 1. Division brings Aris against AEK Larnaca at Alphamega Stadium. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Aris are 7th, upper half, on 15 points after 9 matches; AEK Larnaca are 1st (leading the league) with 20.
Current form
Aris, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Apoel Nicosia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
AEK Larnaca, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Apollon Limassol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aris 1.3 xG, AEK Larnaca 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aris 36%, draw 25%, AEK Larnaca 39%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aris36%fair 2.81 · @2.60
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.30
AEK Larnaca39%fair 2.55 · @2.45
2.74Expected goals
1.34Aris xG
1.39AEK Larnaca xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Aris 1.3 – 1.4 AEK Larnaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win✓
39%
2.55
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Draw no bet
AEK Larnaca (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Aris +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
AEK Larnaca to score first✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca✓
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.84
–
Recent results
Aris – last 6
WDLLWD
6 May
vs Apoel Nicosia
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs Pafos
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Apoel Nicosia
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Apoel Nicosia
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Enosis
4–0
W
1 Mar
vs Pafos
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AEK Larnaca – last 6
WLDDWD
6 May
vs Apollon Limassol
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs Omonia Nicosia
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Apollon Limassol
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Ethnikos Achna
2–0
W
12 Mar
@ Crystal Palace
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aris and AEK Larnaca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
On our numbers Aris have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AEK Larnaca 39%.
How many goals will there be in Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Our predicted score is Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Aris vs AEK Larnaca (1. Division) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Alphamega Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
