Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 3.35 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Pasto to win ✗38% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.52
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 14 May the Primera A brings Deportivo Pasto against Deportes Tolima at Estadio Departamental Libertad. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Pasto are 18th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 18 matches; Deportes Tolima are 9th (upper half) with 26.
Current form
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportes Tolima, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Deportes Tolima, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportivo Pasto, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Deportes Tolima, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto.
Head to head
When they last met (10 May 2026) it ended Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. The last 2 head-to-heads: Deportivo Pasto 1 win, Deportes Tolima 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 1.0 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Pasto 1.1 xG, Deportes Tolima 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Pasto 38%, draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 35%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Deportes Tolima to win @3.35 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes Tolima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Pasto38%fair 2.66 · @2.18
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.20
Deportes Tolima35%fair 2.84 · @3.35
2.36Expected goals
1.13Deportivo Pasto xG
1.23Deportes Tolima xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pasto 1.1 – 1.2 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
Attack vs Primera A average
-29%
+1%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
-7%
Our expected goals here
0.98
1.30
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Deportivo Pasto have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportes Tolima 35%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Departamental Libertad.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
