Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Sunday 24 May: Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima in the Primera A, played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. In the table, Atletico Nacional are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 18 matches; Deportes Tolima are 9th (upper half) with 26. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Nacional, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportes Tolima, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Deportes Tolima, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Coquimbo Unido, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Atletico Nacional, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Deportes Tolima.
Head to head
When they last met (17 May 2026) it ended Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico Nacional. The last 2 head-to-heads: Atletico Nacional 1 win, Deportes Tolima 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 1.0 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 1.9 xG, Deportes Tolima 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 62%, draw 22%, Deportes Tolima 16%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Nacional or draw (84%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportes Tolima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Nacional62%fair 1.61 · @1.68
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.70
Deportes Tolima16%fair 6.26 · @4.90
2.70Expected goals
1.88Atletico Nacional xG
0.82Deportes Tolima xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.9 – 0.8 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
Attack vs Primera A average
+48%
+1%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
-7%
Our expected goals here
2.03
0.86
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportes Tolima 16%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
