Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Ajax to win @ 1.81 – our chance 65% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win ✓65% · @1.81
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.62
Ajax vs Groningen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:45 WAT, Thursday 21 May: Ajax v Groningen in the Eredivisie, played at Kras Stadion. In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; Groningen are 9th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Ajax, last 3: DDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Heerenveen, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Groningen, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Heracles, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 2.5 xG, Groningen 1.0 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 65%, draw 19%, Groningen 16%.
Lower-risk option: Ajax or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Ajax to win @1.81 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ajax or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–1 Groningen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax65%fair 1.53 · @1.81
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @3.85
Groningen16%fair 6.38 · @3.90
3.55Expected goals
2.51Ajax xG
1.04Groningen xG
65%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–18%
1–07%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.5 – 1.0 Groningen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
65%
1.53
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.54
1.53
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
First team to score
Ajax to score first✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
46%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.62
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 3
DDD
17 May
@ Heerenveen
0–0
D
22 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Groningen – last 5
WWDLL
17 May
@ Heracles
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs AZ Alkmaar
3–0
W
13 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ FC Volendam
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Twente
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Groningen.
Our pick is Ajax or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ajax vs Groningen?
On our numbers Ajax have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Groningen 16%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Groningen?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Groningen?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 Groningen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Groningen?
Ajax vs Groningen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Kras Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
