La Luz 43%Draw 28%Uruguay Montevideo 29%Expected goals 1.23 – 0.84
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLa Luz to win ✓43% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.45
La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 24 May the Segunda División brings La Luz against Uruguay Montevideo. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, La Luz are 9th, lower half, on 34 points after 25 matches; Uruguay Montevideo are 14th (in the drop zone) with 22. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
La Luz, last 4: DDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Oriental, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Uruguay Montevideo, last 5: LLWDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atenas, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give La Luz 1.2 xG, Uruguay Montevideo 0.8 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – La Luz 43%, draw 28%, Uruguay Montevideo 29%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: La Luz 1–0 Uruguay Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
La Luz43%fair 2.33 · @2.38
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @3.00
Uruguay Montevideo29%fair 3.41 · @2.90
2.07Expected goals
1.23La Luz xG
0.84Uruguay Montevideo xG
52%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–010%
2–18%
From our goals model: La Luz 1.2 – 0.8 Uruguay Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
Attack vs Segunda División average
-6%
-21%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.40
0.78
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Luz to win✓
43%
2.33
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
La Luz (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Uruguay Montevideo +1 (Asian handicap)✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
La Luz to score first✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Luz / FT La Luz✓
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.45
–
Recent results
La Luz – last 4
DDDD
18 May
@ Oriental
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Cerrito
0–0
D
28 Mar
vs Sportivo Huracan
2–2
D
17 Mar
@ Tacuarembo
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Uruguay Montevideo – last 5
LLWDD
9 May
@ Atenas
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Cerrito
1–2
L
1 Apr
@ Atenas
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Sportivo Huracan
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Fenix
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between La Luz and Uruguay Montevideo.
What is the prediction for La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
On our numbers La Luz have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Uruguay Montevideo 29%.
How many goals will there be in La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
Our predicted score is La Luz 1–0 Uruguay Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
