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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

EC São Bernardo v São Caetano: numbers & prediction

Copa Paulista · Brazil

EC São Bernardo

WLWLD
2–0
FT

São Caetano

LDLLW
EC São Bernardo 61%Draw 22%São Caetano 17% Expected goals 2.11 – 0.92
74%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.40Odds
O2.5

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultEC São Bernardo to win ✓61% · @1.77
Double chanceEC São Bernardo or draw ✓83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11

EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 9 August the Copa Paulista brings EC São Bernardo against São Caetano. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.

Current form

EC São Bernardo, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over São Caetano, away. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

São Caetano, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to EC São Bernardo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours EC São Bernardo, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for São Caetano.

Head to head

When they last met (1 Aug 2026) it ended São Caetano 1–4 EC São Bernardo.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give EC São Bernardo 2.1 xG, São Caetano 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 50% and GG at 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – EC São Bernardo 61%, draw 22%, São Caetano 17%.
  • Lower-risk option: EC São Bernardo or draw (83%) at 1.14.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.36, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: EC São Bernardo 2–0 São Caetano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

EC São Bernardo61%fair 1.65 · @1.77
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.25
São Caetano17%fair 5.79 · @4.40
3.04Expected goals
2.11EC São Bernardo xG
0.92São Caetano xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%

From our goals model: EC São Bernardo 2.1 – 0.9 São Caetano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultEC São Bernardo to win ✓61%1.651.77 ▲
Double chanceEC São Bernardo or draw ✓83%1.211.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗55%1.821.95 ▲
Draw no betEC São Bernardo (draw no bet) ✓78%1.28–
Asian handicapEC São Bernardo -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.361.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗50%1.982.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓70%1.421.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓81%1.24–
First team to scoreEC São Bernardo to score first ✓66%1.51–
Half-time resultEC São Bernardo ahead at half-time ✓47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT EC São Bernardo / FT EC São Bernardo ✓42%2.39–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.11–

Recent results

EC São Bernardo – last 6

WLWLDW
1 Aug@ São Caetano4–1W
25 Jul@ São José EC1–2L
19 Julvs Santo André3–1W
15 Marvs Portuguesa Santista0–3L
12 Mar@ Bandeirante SP2–2D
8 Mar@ Itapirense3–0W
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

São Caetano – last 6

LDLLWW
1 Augvs EC São Bernardo1–4L
26 Jul@ Santo André0–0D
20 Julvs São José EC1–2L
28 Mar@ Grêmio Sãocarlense1–4L
25 Mar@ Colorado Caieiras4–0W
18 Mar@ Tanabi2–1W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Aug 2026São Caetano v EC São Bernardo1–4
EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano head-to-head page →

More Copa Paulista predictions

League hub
FT Linense5 Grêmio Prudente2 143%2.15X26%3.10231%3.20 1.1–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.45 ✗
FT Noroeste2 XV de Piracicaba1 143%2.15X27%3.10230%3.20 1.2–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 63%@1.50 ✓
FT Oeste1 Paulista1 139%2.45X27%3.00234%2.75 1.2–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.42 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano?

On our numbers EC São Bernardo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and São Caetano 17%.

How many goals will there be in EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano?

Our predicted score is EC São Bernardo 2–0 São Caetano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano?

EC São Bernardo vs São Caetano (Copa Paulista) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.