Al-Karma vs Diyala: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 27 May the Iraqi League brings Al-Karma against Diyala. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Al-Karma are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Diyala are 12th (lower half) with 14. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Al-Karma, last 5: DDDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Al Talaba, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Diyala, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Baghdad, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al-Karma 1.5 xG, Diyala 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al-Karma 58%, draw 25%, Diyala 17%.
Lower-risk option: Al-Karma or draw (83%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Al-Karma to win (58%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al-Karma 1–0 Diyala. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al-Karma58%fair 1.74 · @1.62
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.50
Diyala17%fair 5.81 · @4.50
2.30Expected goals
1.54Al-Karma xG
0.76Diyala xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Al-Karma 1.5 – 0.8 Diyala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al-Karma to win✓
58%
1.74
1.62
Double chance
Al-Karma or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
1.91
Draw no bet
Al-Karma (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Diyala +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Al-Karma to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al-Karma / FT Al-Karma✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.07
–
Recent results
Al-Karma – last 6
DDDDDD
19 May
@ Al Talaba
1–1
D
14 May
@ Naft Maysan
1–1
D
5 May
@ Naft
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Al-Qasim
2–2
D
22 Apr
@ Al Karkh
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Al Shorta
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Diyala – last 6
LWDLLW
19 May
vs Baghdad
1–4
L
11 May
@ Zakho
2–1
W
6 May
@ Gharraf
0–0
D
1 May
vs Al Talaba
0–1
L
22 Apr
@ Al Zawra'a
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Al Karkh
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al-Karma and Diyala.
Our pick is Al-Karma to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Al-Karma vs Diyala?
On our numbers Al-Karma have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Diyala 17%.
How many goals will there be in Al-Karma vs Diyala?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al-Karma vs Diyala?
Our predicted score is Al-Karma 1–0 Diyala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Al-Karma vs Diyala?
Al-Karma vs Diyala (Iraqi League) kicks off on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
