Cerezo Osaka v Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Jul) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBorussia Dortmund to win ✗64% · @1.42

Double chanceBorussia Dortmund or draw ✗85% · @1.10

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.45

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · @1.11

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.06

Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 29 July the Friendlies Clubs brings Cerezo Osaka against Borussia Dortmund at Yanmar Stadium Nagai. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT.

Current form

Cerezo Osaka, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Tochigi City, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. 3.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Borussia Dortmund, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Fortuna Düsseldorf, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Momentum favours Cerezo Osaka, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.0 for Borussia Dortmund.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Cerezo Osaka 1.0 xG, Borussia Dortmund 2.1 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Cerezo Osaka 15%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund 64%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.45.
Price worth noting: Under 3.5 goals @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Borussia Dortmund. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Cerezo Osaka15%fair 6.58 · @6.50

Draw21%fair 4.74 · @4.75

Borussia Dortmund64%fair 1.57 · @1.42

3.09Expected goals

1.03Cerezo Osaka xG

2.07Borussia Dortmund xG

64%Both score

65%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–210%

0–210%

1–110%

0–19%

1–37%

0–37%

From our goals model: Cerezo Osaka 1.0 – 2.1 Borussia Dortmund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Cerezo Osaka	Borussia Dortmund
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average	-7%	-5%
Goals conceded vs average	-19%	-17%
Our expected goals here	1.09	1.89

Cerezo Osaka

Borussia Dortmund

Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average

-7%

-5%

Goals conceded vs average

-19%

-17%

Our expected goals here

1.09

1.89

Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Borussia Dortmund to win ✗	64%	1.57	1.42
Double chance	Borussia Dortmund or draw ✗	85%	1.18	1.10
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	64%	1.56	1.45
Draw no bet	Borussia Dortmund (draw no bet) ✗	81%	1.24	–
Asian handicap	Borussia Dortmund -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	83%	1.20	1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	65%	1.55	1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	56%	1.79	1.90 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	1.38
First team to score	Borussia Dortmund to score first ✗	64%	1.57	–
Half-time result	Borussia Dortmund ahead at half-time ✗	45%	2.22	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Borussia Dortmund / FT Borussia Dortmund ✗	39%	2.54	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	10%	10.06	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Borussia Dortmund to win ✗

64%

1.57

1.42

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw ✗

85%

1.18

1.10

Both teams to score

Both teams to score ✗

64%

1.56

1.45

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw no bet) ✗

81%

1.24

–

Asian handicap

Borussia Dortmund -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗

61%

1.63

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✗

83%

1.20

1.11

Over/under 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals ✗

65%

1.55

1.36

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals ✓

56%

1.79

1.90 ▲

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals ✓

74%

1.35

1.38

First team to score

Borussia Dortmund to score first ✗

64%

1.57

–

Half-time result

Borussia Dortmund ahead at half-time ✗

45%

2.22

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Borussia Dortmund / FT Borussia Dortmund ✗

39%

2.54

–

Correct score

Correct score 1–2 ✗

10%

10.06

–

15 Jul	vs Tochigi City	1–0	W
6 Jun	@ FC Tokyo	3–1	W
30 May	vs FC Tokyo	2–2	D
24 May	@ Fagiano Okayama	3–2	W
17 May	vs Nagoya Grampus	6–1	W
9 May	vs V-varen Nagasaki	3–2	W

25 Jul	@ Fortuna Düsseldorf	1–2	L
18 Jul	@ Rot-weiss Oberhausen	3–1	W
8 May	vs Eintracht Frankfurt	3–2	W
25 Feb	@ Atalanta	1–4	L
17 Feb	vs Atalanta	2–0	W
13 Feb	vs FSV Mainz 05	4–0	W

Cerezo Osaka v Borussia Dortmund: numbers & prediction