Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.25 – our chance 55% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChelsea to win ✓42% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.52
Chelsea vs AC Milan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 8 August the Friendlies Clubs brings Chelsea against AC Milan at Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT.
Current form
Chelsea, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Juventus, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
AC Milan, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Inter, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chelsea 1.9 xG, AC Milan 1.6 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chelsea 42%, draw 24%, AC Milan 34%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.28, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chelsea 1–1 AC Milan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chelsea42%fair 2.38 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.25
AC Milan34%fair 2.91 · @2.50
3.55Expected goals
1.93Chelsea xG
1.62AC Milan xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
2–19%
1–27%
2–27%
3–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Chelsea 1.9 – 1.6 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chelsea
AC Milan
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average
+31%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
+3%
Our expected goals here
2.34
1.76
Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win✓
42%
2.38
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Chelsea (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
AC Milan +1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
2.25 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
First team to score
Chelsea to score first✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Chelsea ahead at half-time✓
36%
2.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea✓
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.52
–
Recent results
Chelsea – last 6
LLWLWD
5 Aug
vs Juventus
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Tottenham
1–2
L
28 Jul
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
6–4
W
24 May
@ Sunderland
1–2
L
19 May
vs Tottenham
2–1
W
9 May
@ Liverpool
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 6
DDLWLW
5 Aug
vs Inter
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Celtic
2–2
D
24 May
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
17 May
@ Genoa
2–1
W
3 May
@ Sassuolo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Hellas Verona
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelsea and AC Milan.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Chelsea vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AC Milan 34%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs AC Milan?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 1–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs AC Milan?
Chelsea vs AC Milan (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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