Racing Montevideo 54%Draw 25%Defensor Sporting 21%Expected goals 1.52 – 0.83
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✗54% · @1.88
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.94
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Defensor Sporting travel to face Racing Montevideo on Saturday 30 May in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Osvaldo Roberto the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Racing Montevideo, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Liverpool Montevideo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Penarol, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Racing Montevideo, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Defensor Sporting.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.5 xG, Defensor Sporting 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 54%, draw 25%, Defensor Sporting 21%.
Lower-risk option: Racing Montevideo or draw (79%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Montevideo54%fair 1.86 · @1.88
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.15
Defensor Sporting21%fair 4.74 · @4.10
2.35Expected goals
1.52Racing Montevideo xG
0.83Defensor Sporting xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.5 – 0.8 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+9%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.75
0.94
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✗
54%
1.86
1.88
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.00
Draw no bet
Racing Montevideo (draw no bet)
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Racing Montevideo to score first✗
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✗
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.94
–
Recent results
Racing Montevideo – last 6
DWWDWL
22 May
@ Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
17 May
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
LLLDWL
24 May
vs Penarol
0–2
L
17 May
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
10 May
vs Juventud
1–2
L
4 May
@ Penarol
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Progreso
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensor Sporting 21%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
