Danubio vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Danubio welcome Progreso for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Saturday 30 May (19:00 WAT). In the table, Danubio are 14th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Danubio, last 5: LDWDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Deportivo Maldonado, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Progreso, last 5: LLLDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Torque, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Danubio, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 1.1 xG, Progreso 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 45%, draw 28%, Progreso 27%.
Lower-risk option: Danubio or draw (73%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Danubio or draw (73%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 1–0 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Danubio45%fair 2.23 · @1.95
Draw28%fair 3.52 · @3.10
Progreso27%fair 3.75 · @3.80
2.11Expected goals
1.14Danubio xG
0.96Progreso xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.1 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Danubio
Progreso
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-33%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+2%
Our expected goals here
0.88
0.95
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Danubio to win✗
45%
2.23
1.95
Double chance
Danubio or draw✗
73%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.95
Draw no bet
Danubio (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Danubio to score first✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Danubio / FT Danubio✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
13.06
–
Recent results
Danubio – last 6
LDWDLW
18 May
@ Deportivo Maldonado
1–3
L
26 Mar
vs Defensor Sporting
0–0
D
16 Mar
vs Juventud
4–1
W
8 Mar
@ Penarol
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LLLDDL
23 May
vs Atletico Torque
1–2
L
3 May
vs Cerro Largo
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Progreso.
Our pick is Danubio or draw with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Danubio vs Progreso?
On our numbers Danubio have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Progreso 27%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Progreso?
Danubio vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
