Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 53% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✗56% · @1.47
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw ✓82% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Atletico-MG vs Juventude: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Saturday 1 August: Atletico-MG v Juventude in the Copa Do Brasil, played at MRV Arena.
Current form
Atletico-MG, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Palmeiras, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Juventude, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Avai, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.6 xG, Juventude 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 56%, draw 26%, Juventude 18%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–1 Juventude. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico-MG56%fair 1.79 · @1.47
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.95
Juventude18%fair 5.50 · @7.40
2.58Expected goals
1.57Atletico-MG xG
1.01Juventude xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.6 – 1.0 Juventude expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✗
56%
1.79
1.47
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)
75%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Juventude +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Atletico-MG to score first✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✗
30%
3.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
Atletico-MG – last 6
WDWWLW
26 Jul
@ Palmeiras
2–1
W
21 Jul
vs Bahia
1–1
D
31 May
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
27 May
vs Puerto Cabello
1–0
W
24 May
@ Corinthians
0–1
L
21 May
vs Cienciano
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Juventude – last 6
WLWWDW
28 Jul
vs Avai
1–0
W
24 Jul
@ Botafogo SP
2–4
L
17 Jul
vs Cuiaba
2–0
W
10 Jul
vs Vila Nova
1–0
W
6 Jul
@ Nautico Recife
0–0
D
28 Jun
vs Ceara
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Juventude.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Juventude?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Juventude?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Juventude 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Juventude?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Juventude?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–1 Juventude, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Juventude?
Atletico-MG vs Juventude (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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