Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 2.54 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✗43% · @2.54
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.15
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Flamengo travel to face Cruzeiro on Thursday 13 August in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Governador Magalhães Pinto the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT. In the table, Cruzeiro are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; Flamengo are 1st with 16.
Current form
Cruzeiro, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Mirassol, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Flamengo, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Vitoria, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Mar 2026) it ended Flamengo 2–0 Cruzeiro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 1.0 xG, Flamengo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 32%, draw 24%, Flamengo 43%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Flamengo to win @2.54 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 1–1 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cruzeiro32%fair 3.12 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Flamengo43%fair 2.30 · @2.54
2.27Expected goals
1.02Cruzeiro xG
1.25Flamengo xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.0 – 1.2 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Flamengo 43%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mirassol1
LDU de Quito1