Deportes Tolima 38%Draw 23%Independiente del Valle 38%Expected goals 1.12 – 1.12
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓38% · @2.42
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.37
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 19 August the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Deportes Tolima against Independiente del Valle at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Deportes Tolima are 2nd on 8 points after 6 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 13.
Current form
Deportes Tolima, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Internacional de Bogota, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Delfin SC, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for Deportes Tolima.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportes Tolima 1.1 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportes Tolima 38%, draw 23%, Independiente del Valle 38%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Deportes Tolima to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportes Tolima38%fair 2.62 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.10
Independiente del Valle38%fair 2.61 · @2.42
2.24Expected goals
1.12Deportes Tolima xG
1.12Independiente del Valle xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.1 – 1.1 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
38%
2.61
2.42
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.00
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Deportes Tolima +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
20%
5.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.37
–
Recent results
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WLWLWW
9 Aug
vs Internacional de Bogota
2–1
W
5 Aug
vs Independiente Medellin
2–3
L
1 Aug
@ Alianza Valledupar
2–1
W
29 Jul
@ Quindio
1–2
L
26 Jul
vs Junior
2–1
W
22 Jul
vs Quindio
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWWW
15 Aug
vs Delfin SC
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ LDU de Quito
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
30 Jul
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Orense SC
3–2
W
22 Jul
vs Tecnico Universitario
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente del Valle 38%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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