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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Kenya v Lesotho: numbers & prediction

Friendlies · World

Lesotho

DWD

Kenya 65%Draw 22%Lesotho 14% Expected goals 1.60 – 0.54

65%

Betarazi pick

Kenya to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓

6/10Rating

1.70Odds

Picks by market

ResultKenya to win ✓65% · @1.70

Double chanceKenya or draw ✓86% · @1.10

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.60

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.30

Kenya vs Lesotho: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Kenya welcome Lesotho for a Friendlies fixture on Sunday 7 June (14:00 WAT).

Current form

Lesotho, last 3: DWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Kenya, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (4 Jun 2026) it ended Lesotho 1–1 Kenya.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kenya 1.6 xG, Lesotho 0.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Kenya 65%, draw 22%, Lesotho 14%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Kenya to win (65%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kenya 1–0 Lesotho. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kenya65%fair 1.54 · @1.70

Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.20

Lesotho14%fair 7.38 · @5.10

2.14Expected goals

1.60Kenya xG

0.54Lesotho xG

46%Both score

38%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–019%

2–015%

0–012%

1–110%

2–18%

3–08%

From our goals model: Kenya 1.6 – 0.5 Lesotho expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Kenya to win ✓	65%	1.54	1.70 ▲
Double chance	Kenya or draw ✓	86%	1.16	1.10
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	54%	1.87	1.60
Draw no bet	Kenya (draw no bet) ✓	83%	1.21	–
Asian handicap	Kenya -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.58	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	64%	1.57	1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	62%	1.61	1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	81%	1.24	1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	93%	1.07	–
First team to score	Kenya to score first ✓	66%	1.52	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	46%	2.18	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Kenya / FT Kenya ✓	39%	2.56	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	19%	5.30	–

Recent results

Kenya – last 2

4 Jun	@ Lesotho	1–1	D
30 Mar	@ Grenada	3–0	W

2.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Lesotho – last 3

DWD

4 Jun	vs Kenya	1–1	D
29 Mar	vs Seychelles	2–1	W
26 Mar	@ Seychelles	0–0	D

1.0Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Head to head

4 Jun 2026

Lesotho v Kenya

1–1

Kenya vs Lesotho head-to-head page →

More Friendlies predictions

League hub

Curaçao4

Aruba0 167%1.09X17%8.00216%21.00 2.5–1.6xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 73%@1.36 ✓

Argentina2

Honduras0 178%1.11X14%7.7527%25.00 2.8–0.7xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.48 ✗

Afghanistan0

Pakistan2 139%2.38X23%3.00238%2.85 0.8–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 69%@1.55 ✓

Liechtenstein0

Cyprus2 117%10.00X22%4.60260%1.28 0.9–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓

–

Oman

Mozambique 126%2.35X53%3.00220%2.95 1.3–1.2xG 1XOman or draw 80%@1.30

Maldives1

Bangladesh U231 129%2.10X51%3.25220%3.00 0.9–0.8xG 1XMaldives or draw 80%@1.30 ✓

–

Denmark2

Ukraine1 158%1.65X24%3.70218%5.10 1.5–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.30

Kosovo3

Andorra0 167%1.18X22%5.25211%17.00 1.6–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.36 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kenya vs Lesotho?

Our pick is Kenya to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.

Who will win Kenya vs Lesotho?

On our numbers Kenya have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lesotho 14%.

How many goals will there be in Kenya vs Lesotho?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kenya vs Lesotho?

Our predicted score is Kenya 1–0 Lesotho, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Kenya vs Lesotho?

Kenya vs Lesotho (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 7 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.