Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: SC Freiburg to win @ 3.00 – our chance 47% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +41%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSC Freiburg to win ✓47% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · fair 1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.29
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.66
SC Freiburg vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derby travel to face SC Freiburg on Friday 24 July in the Friendlies Clubs – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.
Current form
SC Freiburg, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Aston Villa, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Derby, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Alfreton Town, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give SC Freiburg 1.6 xG, Derby 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – SC Freiburg 47%, draw 20%, Derby 33%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.29.
Price worth noting: SC Freiburg to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.29). Most likely score in line with that pick: SC Freiburg 1–1 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
SC Freiburg47%fair 2.13 · @3.00
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @4.00
Derby33%fair 3.01 · @1.91
2.72Expected goals
1.58SC Freiburg xG
1.14Derby xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: SC Freiburg 1.6 – 1.1 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
SC Freiburg
Derby
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average
+26%
-7%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
-7%
Our expected goals here
2.03
1.24
Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SC Freiburg to win✓
47%
2.13
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.29
Draw no bet
SC Freiburg (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Derby +1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
SC Freiburg to score first
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Freiburg / FT SC Freiburg✗
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
SC Freiburg – last 6
LLWLDW
20 May
vs Aston Villa
0–3
L
10 May
@ Hamburger SV
2–3
L
7 May
vs SC Braga
3–1
W
30 Apr
@ SC Braga
1–2
L
23 Apr
@ VfB Stuttgart
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs 1. FC Heidenheim
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
WLLWLW
17 Jul
@ Alfreton Town
2–0
W
2 May
vs Sheffield Utd
1–2
L
21 Apr
@ Norwich
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Stoke City
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Coventry
2–3
L
16 Mar
@ Portsmouth
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SC Freiburg and Derby.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Derby?
On our numbers SC Freiburg have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Derby 33%.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs Derby?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Derby?
Our predicted score is SC Freiburg 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is SC Freiburg vs Derby?
SC Freiburg vs Derby (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 24 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Preston0
Cambridge United1
Swansea2
Udinese0
Lommel United0
ADO Den Haag4
Groningen0
FC Volendam4
VfL Wolfsburg0
Lyon2
Gloggnitz1
Rapid Wien II3
Sokół Kolb.2
Czarni Połaniec1
Rosenborg0
Manchester United5