Value bet: Alianza Lima to win @ 3.70 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.28
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:30 WAT, Sunday 23 August: FBC Melgar v Alianza Lima in the Primera División, played at Estadio de la UNSA. In the table, FBC Melgar are 5th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
FBC Melgar, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Club Deportivo Los Chankas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alianza Lima, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over UTC Cajamarca, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (10 Mar 2026) it ended Alianza Lima 3–1 FBC Melgar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FBC Melgar 1.4 xG, Alianza Lima 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FBC Melgar 44%, draw 23%, Alianza Lima 33%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Alianza Lima to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.77, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FBC Melgar 1–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FBC Melgar44%fair 2.29 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.10
Alianza Lima33%fair 3.02 · @3.70
2.66Expected goals
1.44FBC Melgar xG
1.22Alianza Lima xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.4 – 1.2 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Lima 33%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
