Alianza Lima 66%Draw 20%Deportivo Garcilaso 14%Expected goals 1.69 – 0.59
66%
Betarazi pick
Alianza Lima to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✗66% · @1.30
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✗86% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.60
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 30 August the Primera División brings Alianza Lima against Deportivo Garcilaso at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Alianza Lima are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th (among the top four) with 29. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alianza Lima, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FBC Melgar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Deportivo Garcilaso, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Cusco, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Alianza Lima.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Lima 1.7 xG, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Lima 66%, draw 20%, Deportivo Garcilaso 14%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alianza Lima to win (66%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Lima 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Lima66%fair 1.52 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @4.33
Deportivo Garcilaso14%fair 7.04 · @11.00
2.28Expected goals
1.69Alianza Lima xG
0.59Deportivo Garcilaso xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–015%
0–010%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 1.7 – 0.6 Deportivo Garcilaso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our pick is Alianza Lima to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportivo Garcilaso 14%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
