UCV Moquegua v Alianza Atletico Prediction & Expected Goals (30 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultUCV Moquegua to win ✗39% · @2.40

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.27

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.61

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 30 August the Primera División brings UCV Moquegua against Alianza Atletico at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, UCV Moquegua are 17th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 16 matches; Alianza Atletico are 7th (upper half) with 28. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

UCV Moquegua, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to ADT, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Alianza Atletico, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with UTC Cajamarca, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Alianza Atletico, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for UCV Moquegua.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give UCV Moquegua 1.2 xG, Alianza Atletico 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – UCV Moquegua 39%, draw 24%, Alianza Atletico 37%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (50%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCV Moquegua 1–1 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

UCV Moquegua39%fair 2.56 · @2.40

Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00

Alianza Atletico37%fair 2.72 · @2.88

2.37Expected goals

1.21UCV Moquegua xG

1.16Alianza Atletico xG

50%Both score

42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–011%

0–111%

0–09%

2–18%

1–28%

From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 1.2 – 1.2 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	UCV Moquegua to win ✗	39%	2.56	2.40
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.32	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	50%	1.98	1.85
Draw no bet	UCV Moquegua (draw no bet) ✗	52%	1.94	–
Asian handicap	Alianza Atletico +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	68%	1.46	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	78%	1.27	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	91%	1.10	–
First team to score	UCV Moquegua to score first	46%	2.16	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	45%	2.20	–
Half-time / full-time	HT UCV Moquegua / FT UCV Moquegua ✗	21%	4.72	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.61	–

UCV Moquegua – last 6

LWDLDD

27 Aug	@ ADT	0–2	L
22 Aug	@ Sport Huancayo	2–0	W
16 Aug	vs Sport Boys	1–1	D
9 Aug	@ Deportivo Garcilaso	0–2	L
2 Aug	vs FBC Melgar	0–0	D
26 Jul	@ UTC Cajamarca	0–0	D

0.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Alianza Atletico – last 6

DWDWLW

25 Aug	vs UTC Cajamarca	1–1	D
21 Aug	vs Sporting Cristal	3–1	W
15 Aug	@ ADT	1–1	D
6 Aug	vs Cienciano	1–0	W
2 Aug	@ Alianza Lima	1–3	L
24 Jul	vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas	3–1	W

1.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

83%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	17	10	6	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	16	3	14	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	-1	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	-3	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	-9	37
15	ADT	33	7	11	15	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	7	9	17	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	-20	19

Team

Pts

+30

+20

+18

+15

+15

-1

-1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

-12

Sport Boys

Juan Pablo II College

-11

-3

-9

-12

-19

-21

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.

Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Atletico 37%.

How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 1–1 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

UCV Moquegua v Alianza Atletico: numbers & prediction