UTC Cajamarca v Sporting Cristal Prediction & Expected Goals (11 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSporting Cristal to win57% · @1.95

Double chanceSporting Cristal or draw81% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals82% · fair 1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.11

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 11 October the Primera División brings UTC Cajamarca against Sporting Cristal at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, UTC Cajamarca are 18th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 16 matches; Sporting Cristal are 2nd (among the top four) with 32. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

UTC Cajamarca, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Sport Huancayo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.

Sporting Cristal, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 5–0 win over ADT, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Sporting Cristal, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.2 for UTC Cajamarca.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give UTC Cajamarca 1.1 xG, Sporting Cristal 2.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – UTC Cajamarca 19%, draw 23%, Sporting Cristal 57%.
Lower-risk option: Sporting Cristal or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Sporting Cristal to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Sporting Cristal or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting Cristal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

UTC Cajamarca19%fair 5.14 · @3.50

Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.40

Sporting Cristal57%fair 1.74 · @1.95

3.15Expected goals

1.12UTC Cajamarca xG

2.03Sporting Cristal xG

60%Both score

61%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–210%

1–110%

0–29%

0–19%

1–37%

0–36%

From our goals model: UTC Cajamarca 1.1 – 2.0 Sporting Cristal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sporting Cristal to win	57%	1.74	1.95 ▲
Double chance	Sporting Cristal or draw	81%	1.24	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	60%	1.66	1.62
Draw no bet	Sporting Cristal (draw no bet)	75%	1.34	–
Asian handicap	UTC Cajamarca +1.5 (Asian handicap)	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	79%	1.27	–
First team to score	Sporting Cristal to score first	62%	1.62	–
Half-time result	Sporting Cristal ahead at half-time	43%	2.31	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sporting Cristal / FT Sporting Cristal	37%	2.70	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	10%	10.11	–

UTC Cajamarca – last 6

LLLLDL

20 Sep	@ Sport Huancayo	2–3	L
11 Sep	vs Juan Pablo II College	1–2	L
4 Sep	@ Alianza Atletico	2–3	L
29 Aug	vs Universitario	2–4	L
25 Aug	@ Alianza Atletico	1–1	D
22 Aug	vs Comerciantes Unidos	1–3	L

1.5Scored / game

2.7Conceded / game

100%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Sporting Cristal – last 6

WWWWWL

1 Oct	vs ADT	5–0	W
27 Sep	@ ADT	1–0	W
19 Sep	vs Atletico Grau	3–1	W
13 Sep	@ UCV Moquegua	2–1	W
6 Sep	vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas	5–0	W
30 Aug	@ Sport Boys	0–1	L

2.7Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	17	10	6	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	16	3	14	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	-1	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	-3	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	-9	37
15	ADT	33	7	11	15	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	7	9	17	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	-20	19

Team

Pts

+30

+20

+18

+15

+15

-1

-1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

-12

Sport Boys

Juan Pablo II College

-11

-3

-9

-12

-19

-21

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

Our pick is Sporting Cristal or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

On our numbers UTC Cajamarca have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sporting Cristal 57%.

How many goals will there be in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

Our predicted score is UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting Cristal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

UTC Cajamarca v Sporting Cristal: numbers & prediction