UCV Moquegua 10%Draw 24%Alianza Lima 65%Expected goals 0.58 – 1.78
65%
Betarazi pick
Alianza Lima to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✓65% · @1.57
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✓90% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓17% · fair 5.96
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Sunday 25 October: UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima in the Primera División, played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. In the table, UCV Moquegua are 17th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
UCV Moquegua, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Cajamarca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Alianza Lima, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Atletico Grau, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Alianza Lima, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for UCV Moquegua.
Head to head
When they last met (3 May 2026) it ended Alianza Lima 2–1 UCV Moquegua.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UCV Moquegua 0.6 xG, Alianza Lima 1.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UCV Moquegua 10%, draw 24%, Alianza Lima 65%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alianza Lima to win (65%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCV Moquegua 0–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UCV Moquegua10%fair 9.63 · @5.80
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.50
Alianza Lima65%fair 1.53 · @1.57
2.36Expected goals
0.58UCV Moquegua xG
1.78Alianza Lima xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–117%
0–215%
1–110%
0–09%
0–39%
1–29%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 0.6 – 1.8 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Alianza Lima to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima 65%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 0–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
