Alianza Atletico v Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction & Expected Goals (28 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAlianza Atletico to win ✓58% · @1.80

Double chanceAlianza Atletico or draw ✓80% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19

Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

21:30 WAT, Wednesday 28 October: Alianza Atletico v Deportivo Garcilaso in the Primera División, played at Estadio Campeones del 36. In the table, Alianza Atletico are 7th, upper half, on 28 points after 16 matches; Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th (among the top four) with 29. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Alianza Atletico, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Sport Huancayo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Deportivo Garcilaso, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Club Deportivo Los Chankas, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Head to head

When they last met (11 May 2026) it ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2–1 Alianza Atletico. The last 2 head-to-heads: Alianza Atletico 1 win, Deportivo Garcilaso 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Atletico 1.8 xG, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Atletico 58%, draw 22%, Deportivo Garcilaso 20%.
Lower-risk option: Alianza Atletico or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Alianza Atletico or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Atletico 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Alianza Atletico58%fair 1.74 · @1.80

Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.50

Deportivo Garcilaso20%fair 4.95 · @4.00

2.73Expected goals

1.78Alianza Atletico xG

0.95Deportivo Garcilaso xG

57%Both score

51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–012%

1–111%

2–010%

2–110%

0–07%

3–06%

From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.8 – 0.9 Deportivo Garcilaso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Alianza Atletico to win ✓	58%	1.74	1.80
Double chance	Alianza Atletico or draw ✓	80%	1.25	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	57%	1.74	1.75
Draw no bet	Alianza Atletico (draw no bet) ✓	74%	1.35	–
Asian handicap	Deportivo Garcilaso +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	51%	1.95	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	71%	1.41	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	86%	1.16	–
First team to score	Alianza Atletico to score first ✓	61%	1.64	–
Half-time result	Alianza Atletico ahead at half-time ✓	41%	2.43	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Alianza Atletico / FT Alianza Atletico ✓	35%	2.82	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.19	–

Alianza Atletico – last 6

LLWWLW

24 Oct	@ Sport Huancayo	1–4	L
18 Oct	vs Universitario	1–4	L
11 Oct	@ Sport Boys	3–1	W
6 Oct	vs Sport Boys	3–0	W
27 Sep	@ Sport Boys	0–3	L
18 Sep	vs Comerciantes Unidos	2–1	W

1.7Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6

WLLWLW

26 Oct	vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas	4–1	W
18 Oct	@ FBC Melgar	2–4	L
10 Oct	vs Sport Huancayo	0–1	L
20 Sep	vs Universitario	4–0	W
13 Sep	@ Sport Boys	0–1	L
6 Sep	vs Atletico Grau	4–2	W

2.3Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	17	10	6	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	16	3	14	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	-1	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	-3	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	-9	37
15	ADT	33	7	11	15	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	7	9	17	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	-20	19

Team

Pts

+30

+20

+18

+15

+15

-1

-1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

-12

Sport Boys

Juan Pablo II College

-11

-3

-9

-12

-19

-21

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Our pick is Alianza Atletico or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Garcilaso 20%.

How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera División) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones del 36.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Alianza Atletico v Deportivo Garcilaso: numbers & prediction