Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe Prediction & Expected Goals (30 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓67% · @1.44

Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓84% · @1.12

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Atletico Nacional welcome Santa Fe to Estadio Atanasio Girardot for a Primera A fixture on Friday 30 October (02:30 WAT). In the table, Atletico Nacional are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 18 matches; Santa Fe are 5th (upper half) with 31.

Current form

Atletico Nacional, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Independiente Medellin, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Santa Fe, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Bucaramanga, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (26 Feb 2026) it ended Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico Nacional.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 1.9 xG, Santa Fe 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 67%, draw 18%, Santa Fe 16%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Atletico Nacional to win (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Santa Fe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atletico Nacional67%fair 1.50 · @1.44

Draw18%fair 5.67 · @4.33

Santa Fe16%fair 6.39 · @5.50

2.71Expected goals

1.94Atletico Nacional xG

0.77Santa Fe xG

58%Both score

51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

2–013%

1–110%

2–110%

3–08%

0–07%

From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.9 – 0.8 Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atletico Nacional to win ✓	67%	1.50	1.44
Double chance	Atletico Nacional or draw ✓	84%	1.19	1.12
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	58%	1.72	1.62
Draw no bet	Atletico Nacional (draw no bet) ✓	81%	1.23	–
Asian handicap	Atletico Nacional -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.33	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	51%	1.97	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	–
First team to score	Atletico Nacional to score first ✓	67%	1.49	–
Half-time result	Atletico Nacional ahead at half-time ✓	46%	2.16	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional ✓	42%	2.40	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.38	–

Atletico Nacional – last 6

WWLWWD

26 Oct	vs Independiente Medellin	2–1	W
23 Oct	vs Deportivo Pasto	3–0	W
21 Oct	@ Cucuta	0–1	L
17 Oct	@ Chico	4–1	W
15 Oct	vs Independiente Medellin	3–2	W
9 Oct	vs Deportes Tolima	0–0	D

2.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Santa Fe – last 6

WWLDWW

27 Oct	vs Bucaramanga	2–1	W
22 Oct	vs Jaguares	2–1	W
19 Oct	@ Llaneros	0–1	L
11 Oct	vs Fortaleza FC	2–2	D
6 Oct	@ Independiente Medellin	1–0	W
29 Sep	@ Deportivo Pereira	2–1	W

1.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	-17	10

Team

Pts

+20

+10

+10

Internacional de Bogota

Deportivo Cali

Millonarios

Independiente Medellin

-5

-3

-5

-13

-14

-17

-13

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

Our pick is Atletico Nacional to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Santa Fe 16%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe: numbers & prediction