Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 3.60 – our chance 37% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +34%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultOnce Caldas to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.17
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportes Tolima travel to face Once Caldas on Thursday 17 September in the Primera A, with Estadio Palogrande the venue – the ball rolls at 00:15 WAT. In the table, Once Caldas are 8th, upper half, on 27 points after 18 matches; Deportes Tolima are 9th (upper half) with 26. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Once Caldas, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Deportivo Cali, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Deportes Tolima, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Santa Fe, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended Deportes Tolima 2–1 Once Caldas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Once Caldas 1.3 xG, Deportes Tolima 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Once Caldas 39%, draw 24%, Deportes Tolima 37%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Deportes Tolima to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.73, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Once Caldas 1–1 Deportes Tolima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Once Caldas39%fair 2.59 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00
Deportes Tolima37%fair 2.69 · @3.60
2.57Expected goals
1.30Once Caldas xG
1.27Deportes Tolima xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.3 – 1.3 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Deportes Tolima 37%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–1 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
