America de Cali 63%Draw 22%Independiente Medellin 14%Expected goals 1.81 – 0.72
86%
Betarazi pick
America de Cali or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: America de Cali to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAmerica de Cali to win ✗63% · @1.80
Double chanceAmerica de Cali or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.93
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente Medellin travel to face America de Cali on Monday 12 October in the Primera A, with Olímpico Pascual Guerrero the venue – the ball rolls at 02:15 WAT. In the table, America de Cali are 2nd, among the top four, on 36 points after 18 matches; Independiente Medellin are 6th (upper half) with 29.
Current form
America de Cali, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Llaneros, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Santa Fe, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours America de Cali, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Independiente Medellin.
Head to head
When they last met (31 Mar 2026) it ended Independiente Medellin 2–1 America de Cali.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give America de Cali 1.8 xG, Independiente Medellin 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – America de Cali 63%, draw 22%, Independiente Medellin 14%.
Lower-risk option: America de Cali or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: America de Cali to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was America de Cali or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: America de Cali 1–0 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
America de Cali63%fair 1.57 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.30
Independiente Medellin14%fair 7.06 · @4.20
2.53Expected goals
1.81America de Cali xG
0.72Independiente Medellin xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: America de Cali 1.8 – 0.7 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is America de Cali or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers America de Cali have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independiente Medellin 14%.
How many goals will there be in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is America de Cali 1–0 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time) at Olímpico Pascual Guerrero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
