AS Roma 62%Draw 23%Atalanta 15%Expected goals 2.05 – 0.95
62%
Betarazi pick
AS Roma to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultAS Roma to win ✓62% · @1.73
Double chanceAS Roma or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.06
AS Roma vs Atalanta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
AS Roma welcome Atalanta to Stadio Olimpico for a Serie A fixture on Saturday 5 September (19:45 WAT). In the table, AS Roma are 3rd, among the top four, on 27 points after 11 matches; Atalanta are 12th (lower half) with 14. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
AS Roma, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Lecce, away. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Atalanta, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bologna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Atalanta, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for AS Roma.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AS Roma 2.1 xG, Atalanta 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AS Roma 62%, draw 23%, Atalanta 15%.
Lower-risk option: AS Roma or draw (85%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AS Roma to win (62%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AS Roma 2–0 Atalanta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AS Roma62%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.60
Atalanta15%fair 6.52 · @4.50
3.00Expected goals
2.05AS Roma xG
0.95Atalanta xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: AS Roma 2.1 – 0.9 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win✓
62%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Double chance
AS Roma or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
AS Roma (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
AS Roma -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
AS Roma to score first
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
AS Roma ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
AS Roma – last 6
WWDLWL
31 Aug
@ Lecce
4–0
W
24 Aug
vs Fiorentina
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Brighton
0–3
L
4 Aug
@ Newport County
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cardiff
1–4
L
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
WWWDWW
31 Aug
vs Bologna
1–0
W
27 Aug
@ Hapoel Tel Aviv
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
20 Aug
vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
0–0
D
14 Aug
vs Athletic Club
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ FC Schalke 04
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Atalanta.
Our pick is AS Roma to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atalanta 15%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 2–0 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
