Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Cagliari to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCagliari to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceCagliari or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.66
Cagliari vs Lecce: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 7 September the Serie A brings Cagliari against Lecce at Unipol Domus. Kick-off: 17:30 WAT. In the table, Cagliari are 9th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Lecce are 14th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Cagliari, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Hellas Verona, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Lecce, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to AS Roma, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (16 Feb 2026) it ended Cagliari 0–2 Lecce.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cagliari 1.4 xG, Lecce 0.6 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cagliari 60%, draw 24%, Lecce 17%.
Lower-risk option: Cagliari or draw (83%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Cagliari to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cagliari or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cagliari 1–0 Lecce. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cagliari60%fair 1.68 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.10
Lecce17%fair 6.02 · @3.90
2.00Expected goals
1.43Cagliari xG
0.57Lecce xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–014%
0–014%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Cagliari 1.4 – 0.6 Lecce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Cagliari or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cagliari vs Lecce?
On our numbers Cagliari have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lecce 17%.
How many goals will there be in Cagliari vs Lecce?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our predicted score is Cagliari 1–0 Lecce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cagliari vs Lecce?
Cagliari vs Lecce (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Unipol Domus.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
