Value bet: Lecce to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLecce to win ✓42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Lecce vs Monza: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 13 September: Lecce v Monza in the Serie A, played at Via del Mare. In the table, Lecce are 14th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Monza are 18th (in the drop zone) with 7. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lecce, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cagliari, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Monza, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Parma, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lecce 1.7 xG, Monza 1.5 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lecce 42%, draw 25%, Monza 34%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Lecce to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.82, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lecce 1–1 Monza. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lecce42%fair 2.40 · @2.62
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.90
Monza34%fair 2.98 · @2.80
3.17Expected goals
1.68Lecce xG
1.49Monza xG
55%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lecce 1.7 – 1.5 Monza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lecce to win✓
42%
2.40
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Lecce (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Monza +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Lecce to score first
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lecce / FT Lecce✓
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.32
–
Recent results
Lecce – last 6
LLWLWD
7 Sep
@ Cagliari
0–1
L
31 Aug
vs AS Roma
0–4
L
23 Aug
@ Venezia
2–0
W
17 Aug
@ Palermo
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs SS Monopoli
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Istra 1961
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Monza – last 6
DWLLWD
6 Sep
@ Parma
1–1
D
1 Sep
@ Torino
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Udinese
2–3
L
22 Aug
@ Inter
1–4
L
14 Aug
vs Avellino
3–0
W
7 Aug
vs Padova
3–3
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lecce and Monza.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Lecce vs Monza?
On our numbers Lecce have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Monza 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Monza?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Monza?
Our predicted score is Lecce 1–1 Monza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce vs Monza (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Via del Mare.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
