Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Napoli to win @ 2.25 – our chance 49% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNapoli to win ✗49% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.82
Fiorentina vs Napoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fiorentina welcome Napoli to Stadio Artemio Franchi for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 20 September (11:30 WAT). In the table, Fiorentina are 15th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Napoli are 10th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Fiorentina, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Pisa, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Napoli, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bologna, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fiorentina 1.4 xG, Napoli 1.9 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 66% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fiorentina 28%, draw 23%, Napoli 49%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Napoli to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.60, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fiorentina28%fair 3.56 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.25
Napoli49%fair 2.03 · @2.25
3.38Expected goals
1.43Fiorentina xG
1.95Napoli xG
63%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–17%
0–26%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.4 – 1.9 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✗
49%
2.03
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.67
Draw no bet
Napoli (draw no bet)
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Fiorentina +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
First team to score
Napoli to score first✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Napoli ahead at half-time✓
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
31%
3.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.82
–
Recent results
Fiorentina – last 6
WWLLLW
15 Sep
vs Pisa
3–0
W
11 Sep
@ Venezia
4–2
W
5 Sep
vs Torino
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Frosinone
0–3
L
24 Aug
@ AS Roma
0–4
L
14 Aug
vs Benevento
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
WLLLWW
13 Sep
vs Bologna
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Inter
2–3
L
30 Aug
vs Como
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Genoa
2–0
W
12 Aug
vs Aris Thessalonikis
6–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Napoli.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Napoli 49%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Fiorentina vs Napoli (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
