Lecce v Bologna Prediction & Expected Goals (11 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBologna to win ✓58% · @1.85

Double chanceBologna or draw ✓79% · @1.20

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.92

Lecce vs Bologna: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:00 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Lecce v Bologna in the Serie A, played at Stadio Via del Mare. In the table, Lecce are 14th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Bologna are 8th (upper half) with 17.

Current form

Lecce, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to AC Milan, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Bologna, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Torino, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Momentum favours Lecce, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Bologna.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lecce 0.8 xG, Bologna 1.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 49%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Lecce 21%, draw 21%, Bologna 58%.
Lower-risk option: Bologna or draw (79%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Bologna to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Bologna or draw (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lecce 0–1 Bologna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lecce21%fair 4.82 · @4.20

Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.10

Bologna58%fair 1.73 · @1.85

2.40Expected goals

0.81Lecce xG

1.59Bologna xG

49%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%

1–112%

0–212%

1–29%

0–09%

1–07%

From our goals model: Lecce 0.8 – 1.6 Bologna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Bologna to win ✓	58%	1.73	1.85 ▲
Double chance	Bologna or draw ✓	79%	1.26	1.20
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	51%	1.95	1.85
Draw no bet	Bologna (draw no bet) ✓	74%	1.36	–
Asian handicap	Lecce +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	70%	1.43	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.76	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	78%	1.28	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.11	–
First team to score	Bologna to score first ✓	60%	1.66	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	44%	2.27	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Bologna / FT Bologna ✓	34%	2.93	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✗	14%	6.92	–

Lecce – last 6

LWLLWL

20 Sep	@ AC Milan	0–3	L
13 Sep	vs Monza	3–2	W
7 Sep	@ Cagliari	0–1	L
31 Aug	vs AS Roma	0–4	L
23 Aug	@ Venezia	2–0	W
17 Aug	@ Palermo	0–2	L

0.8Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Bologna – last 6

DLDLLL

19 Sep	vs Torino	1–1	D
13 Sep	@ Napoli	0–1	L
6 Sep	vs Sassuolo	2–2	D
31 Aug	@ Atalanta	0–1	L
24 Aug	vs Lazio	0–1	L
15 Aug	@ Brighton	0–1	L

0.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Team

Pts

+16

+15

+21

+10

-5

-2

-3

-5

-10

-8

-8

-13

-8

-13

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lecce vs Bologna?

Our pick is Bologna or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Lecce vs Bologna?

On our numbers Lecce have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bologna 58%.

How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Bologna?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Bologna?

Our predicted score is Lecce 0–1 Bologna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Lecce vs Bologna?

Lecce vs Bologna (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Via del Mare.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Lecce v Bologna: numbers & prediction