Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗58% · @1.58
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗80% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.14
Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
U.N.A.M. - Pumas travel to face Toluca on Wednesday 22 July in the Liga MX, with Estadio Nemesio Diez the venue – the ball rolls at 04:05 WAT. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 11th (lower half) with 21.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Guadalajara Chivas, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to CF Pachuca, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (4 Mar 2026) it ended U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–3 Toluca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 1.9 xG, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 58%, draw 22%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 20%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (80%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca58%fair 1.73 · @1.58
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @4.00
U.N.A.M. - Pumas20%fair 4.90 · @5.25
3.02Expected goals
1.90Toluca xG
1.12U.N.A.M. - Pumas xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.9 – 1.1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-1%
Our expected goals here
2.07
1.35
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
On our numbers Toluca have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 20%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 04:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
