Leon 21%Draw 23%Guadalajara Chivas 56%Expected goals 1.01 – 1.80
79%
Betarazi pick
Guadalajara Chivas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
2
Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.15
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Monday 9 November: Leon v Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX, played at Estadio León.
Current form
Leon, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Cruz Azul, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Atlante FC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Guadalajara Chivas, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for Leon.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Mar 2026) it ended Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 Leon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leon 1.0 xG, Guadalajara Chivas 1.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leon 21%, draw 23%, Guadalajara Chivas 56%.
Lower-risk option: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (79%) at 1.28.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Guadalajara Chivas to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Guadalajara Chivas or draw (79%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leon 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leon21%fair 4.73 · @3.80
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.60
Guadalajara Chivas56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
2.82Expected goals
1.01Leon xG
1.80Guadalajara Chivas xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–210%
1–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Leon 1.0 – 1.8 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Leon have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guadalajara Chivas 56%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio León.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
