Lokomotiv Plovdiv 54%Draw 28%Septemvri Sofia 18%Expected goals 1.35 – 0.69
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✓54% · @1.73
Double chanceLokomotiv Plovdiv or draw ✓82% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 12.25
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv Plovdiv welcome Septemvri Sofia to Stadion Lokomotiv for a First League fixture on Sunday 26 July (19:15 WAT). In the table, Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 14 matches; Septemvri Sofia are 12th (in the drop zone) with 11. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ludogorets, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Septemvri Sofia, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Arda Kardzhali, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Mar 2026) it ended Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.4 xG, Septemvri Sofia 0.7 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv Plovdiv 54%, draw 28%, Septemvri Sofia 18%.
Lower-risk option: Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (82%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv54%fair 1.84 · @1.73
Draw28%fair 3.58 · @3.45
Septemvri Sofia18%fair 5.66 · @4.33
2.04Expected goals
1.35Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
0.69Septemvri Sofia xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–013%
1–112%
2–012%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.4 – 0.7 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Septemvri Sofia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
