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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Arda Kardzhali v Lokomotiv Sofia: numbers & prediction

First League · Bulgaria · Arena Arda

Arda Kardzhali

WLWDL
3–1
FT

Lokomotiv Sofia

LDLDD
Arda Kardzhali 64%Draw 23%Lokomotiv Sofia 13% Expected goals 1.80 – 0.69
74%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.28Odds
1

Value bet: Arda Kardzhali to win @ 1.77 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultArda Kardzhali to win ✓64% · @1.77
Double chanceArda Kardzhali or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.80

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:15 WAT, Monday 17 August: Arda Kardzhali v Lokomotiv Sofia in the First League, played at Arena Arda. In the table, Arda Kardzhali are 6th, upper half, on 21 points after 14 matches; Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th (in the drop zone) with 9. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Arda Kardzhali, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Dunav Ruse, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Lokomotiv Sofia, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to CSKA 1948, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Arda Kardzhali, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Lokomotiv Sofia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Arda Kardzhali 1.8 xG, Lokomotiv Sofia 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Arda Kardzhali 64%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Sofia 13%.
  • Lower-risk option: Arda Kardzhali or draw (87%) at 1.15.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
  • Price worth noting: Arda Kardzhali to win @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 64%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Arda Kardzhali64%fair 1.57 · @1.77
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.45
Lokomotiv Sofia13%fair 7.52 · @4.10
2.49Expected goals
1.80Arda Kardzhali xG
0.69Lokomotiv Sofia xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%

From our goals model: Arda Kardzhali 1.8 – 0.7 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultArda Kardzhali to win ✓64%1.571.77 ▲
Double chanceArda Kardzhali or draw ✓87%1.151.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.861.80
Draw no betArda Kardzhali (draw no bet) ✓83%1.21–
Asian handicapArda Kardzhali -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.401.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗53%1.881.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74%1.351.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scoreArda Kardzhali to score first ✓66%1.51–
Half-time resultArda Kardzhali ahead at half-time ✓45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Arda Kardzhali / FT Arda Kardzhali ✓40%2.47–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.80–

Recent results

Arda Kardzhali – last 6

WLWDLD
8 Aug@ Dunav Ruse2–0W
31 Jul@ CSKA 19481–2L
24 Julvs Slavia Sofia1–0W
18 Jul@ Septemvri Sofia1–1D
10 Jul@ Botev Vratsa0–1L
7 Julvs Beitar Jerusalem0–0D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Lokomotiv Sofia – last 6

LDLDDD
8 Augvs CSKA 19481–3L
31 Jul@ Slavia Sofia1–1D
25 Julvs Levski Sofia1–2L
21 Jul@ Botev Plovdiv1–1D
11 Julvs Teuta Durrës0–0D
4 Julvs Dukagjini3–3D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Arda Kardzhali and Lokomotiv Sofia.

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia head-to-head page →

First League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1CSKA Sofia141040+2334
2Levski Sofia131021+1732
3Ludogorets13931+1530
4CSKA 194814923+1729
5Botev Plovdiv14725+223
6Arda Kardzhali14635-221
7Spartak Varna14446-1016
8Slavia Sofia14284014
9Cherno More Varna14347-813
10Dunav Ruse14338-712
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv14338-1012
12Septemvri Sofia14329-1311
13Botev Vratsa14248-1310
14Lokomotiv Sofia14167-119

More First League predictions

League hub
FT Spartak Varna0 Septemvri Sofia1 155%1.91X21%3.25224%3.65 1.7–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.35 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia?

On our numbers Arda Kardzhali have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lokomotiv Sofia 13%.

How many goals will there be in Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia?

Our predicted score is Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia?

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia (First League) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Arena Arda.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.