Cherno More Varna 65%Draw 21%Septemvri Sofia 14%Expected goals 2.06 – 0.85
65%
Betarazi pick
Cherno More Varna to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✓65% · @1.67
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 27 October the First League brings Cherno More Varna against Septemvri Sofia at Ticha Stadium. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Cherno More Varna are 9th, lower half, on 13 points after 14 matches; Septemvri Sofia are 12th (in the drop zone) with 11. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Cherno More Varna, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lokomotiv Plovdiv, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Septemvri Sofia, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Cherno More Varna, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.3 for Septemvri Sofia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cherno More Varna 2.1 xG, Septemvri Sofia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cherno More Varna 65%, draw 21%, Septemvri Sofia 14%.
Lower-risk option: Cherno More Varna or draw (86%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cherno More Varna to win (65%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cherno More Varna 2–0 Septemvri Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cherno More Varna65%fair 1.54 · @1.67
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.50
Septemvri Sofia14%fair 7.15 · @4.50
2.91Expected goals
2.06Cherno More Varna xG
0.85Septemvri Sofia xG
57%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 2.1 – 0.8 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cherno More Varna to win✓
65%
1.54
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Cherno More Varna or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Cherno More Varna (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Cherno More Varna -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Cherno More Varna to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Cherno More Varna ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cherno More Varna / FT Cherno More Varna✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Recent results
Cherno More Varna – last 6
LWLLDD
21 Oct
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
17 Oct
@ Marek
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Levski Sofia
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Ludogorets
0–5
L
19 Sep
@ Arda Kardzhali
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Septemvri Sofia – last 6
DLLLLD
17 Oct
@ Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1–1
D
11 Oct
vs Dunav Ruse
2–3
L
19 Sep
vs Botev Plovdiv
0–3
L
14 Sep
@ Ludogorets
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Botev Vratsa
2–3
L
28 Aug
@ Slavia Sofia
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Cherno More Varna to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Septemvri Sofia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 2–0 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Ticha Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
