Value bet: NAC Breda to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNAC Breda to win ✓57% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓72% · @1.33
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.40
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
De Graafschap welcome NAC Breda to De Vijverberg for a Eerste Divisie fixture on Sunday 20 September (15:45 WAT). In the table, De Graafschap are 1st, leading the league, on 0 points after 0 matches; NAC Breda are 13th (lower half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
De Graafschap, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Emmen, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 3.0 conceded per game.
NAC Breda, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Jong Utrecht, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours NAC Breda, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for De Graafschap.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give De Graafschap 1.7 xG, NAC Breda 2.5 xG – a total near 4.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 79% and GG at 72%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – De Graafschap 26%, draw 17%, NAC Breda 57%.
GG/NG: GG (72%) at 1.33.
Price worth noting: NAC Breda to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (72%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: De Graafschap 1–2 NAC Breda. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
De Graafschap26%fair 3.87 · @3.25
Draw17%fair 5.74 · @3.80
NAC Breda57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
4.17Expected goals
1.67De Graafschap xG
2.50NAC Breda xG
72%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
2–27%
1–37%
1–16%
2–36%
2–15%
From our goals model: De Graafschap 1.7 – 2.5 NAC Breda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
NAC Breda to win✓
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Draw no bet
NAC Breda (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
De Graafschap +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
First team to score
NAC Breda to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
NAC Breda ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT NAC Breda / FT NAC Breda✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.40
–
Recent results
De Graafschap – last 6
WLLLLD
11 Sep
@ Emmen
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Heracles
0–5
L
29 Aug
vs Almere City FC
1–4
L
23 Aug
@ VVV Venlo
1–2
L
17 Aug
vs Jong AZ
2–5
L
9 Aug
@ Helmond Sport
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
NAC Breda – last 6
LLDWLW
11 Sep
vs Jong Utrecht
2–3
L
4 Sep
@ Waalwijk
2–4
L
28 Aug
@ Roda
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Jong Ajax
3–2
W
14 Aug
vs VVV Venlo
0–2
L
7 Aug
@ FC OSS
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda.
What is the prediction for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
On our numbers De Graafschap have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 17% and NAC Breda 57%.
How many goals will there be in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our predicted score is De Graafschap 1–2 NAC Breda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at De Vijverberg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
