Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultHeracles to win ✓67% · @1.40
Double chanceHeracles or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.57
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.05
MVV vs Heracles: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 18 October the Eerste Divisie brings MVV against Heracles at De Geusselt. Kick-off: 15:45 WAT. In the table, MVV are 8th, upper half, on 0 points after 0 matches; Heracles are 16th (lower half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
MVV, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to NAC Breda, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Heracles, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Waalwijk, at home. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Heracles, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for MVV.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give MVV 1.2 xG, Heracles 2.6 xG – a total near 3.8. That is an open game on paper: 73% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – MVV 13%, draw 20%, Heracles 67%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Heracles to win (67%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: MVV 1–2 Heracles. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
MVV13%fair 7.73 · @6.00
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @4.80
Heracles67%fair 1.49 · @1.40
3.80Expected goals
1.17MVV xG
2.63Heracles xG
65%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–38%
0–28%
1–17%
0–37%
0–16%
From our goals model: MVV 1.2 – 2.6 Heracles expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heracles to win✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Double chance
Heracles or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.57
Draw no bet
Heracles (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Heracles -1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
–
First team to score
Heracles to score first
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Heracles ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heracles / FT Heracles✓
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.05
–
Recent results
MVV – last 6
LLWLLD
9 Oct
@ NAC Breda
0–1
L
3 Oct
@ FC OSS
1–4
L
26 Sep
vs Helmond Sport
2–0
W
18 Sep
@ Waalwijk
1–6
L
11 Sep
vs Almere City FC
0–4
L
6 Sep
vs Roda
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Heracles – last 6
WDWLWW
9 Oct
vs Waalwijk
3–0
W
2 Oct
@ Helmond Sport
2–2
D
26 Sep
vs Vitesse
2–0
W
18 Sep
@ Almere City FC
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Jong AZ
3–2
W
4 Sep
vs De Graafschap
5–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and Heracles.
Our pick is Heracles to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win MVV vs Heracles?
On our numbers MVV have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Heracles 67%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs Heracles?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs Heracles?
Our predicted score is MVV 1–2 Heracles, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is MVV vs Heracles?
MVV vs Heracles (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
