Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ajax welcome PSV Eindhoven to Johan Cruijff Arena for a Eredivisie fixture on Saturday 5 September (19:00 WAT). In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; PSV Eindhoven are 1st (leading the league) with 26. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ajax, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Telstar, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.2 a game lately.
PSV Eindhoven, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 6–1 win over Utrecht, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 2.1 xG, PSV Eindhoven 2.2 xG – a total near 4.3. That is an open game on paper: 80% for three or more goals, 72% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 39%, draw 20%, PSV Eindhoven 41%.
GG/NG: GG (72%) at 1.30.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (72%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–2 PSV Eindhoven. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax39%fair 2.53 · @2.50
Draw20%fair 5.11 · @3.80
PSV Eindhoven41%fair 2.44 · @2.30
4.29Expected goals
2.13Ajax xG
2.16PSV Eindhoven xG
72%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–27%
1–27%
2–17%
1–16%
2–35%
3–25%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.1 – 2.2 PSV Eindhoven expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
PSV Eindhoven to win✓
41%
2.44
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Draw no bet
PSV Eindhoven (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Ajax +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
–
First team to score
PSV Eindhoven to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
PSV Eindhoven ahead at half-time✓
34%
2.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT PSV Eindhoven / FT PSV Eindhoven✓
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.66
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 6
WWWDDW
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs FC Sion
5–3
W
20 Aug
@ FC Sion
4–2
W
16 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
13 Aug
@ Shelbourne
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ PEC Zwolle
2–0
W
3.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
PSV Eindhoven – last 6
WWWDLW
30 Aug
@ Utrecht
6–1
W
23 Aug
vs Groningen
5–1
W
15 Aug
@ Excelsior
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Fortuna Sittard
2–2
D
2 Aug
vs AZ Alkmaar
0–4
L
28 Jul
vs FC Eindhoven
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and PSV Eindhoven.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
On our numbers Ajax have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 20% and PSV Eindhoven 41%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–2 PSV Eindhoven, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
