Willem II vs Excelsior: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Excelsior travel to face Willem II on Saturday 5 September in the Eredivisie, with Koning Willem II Stadion the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Willem II are 18th, in the drop zone, on 3 points after 12 matches; Excelsior are 15th (lower half) with 11.
Current form
Willem II, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Heerenveen, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Excelsior, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sparta Rotterdam, at home. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. 3.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Excelsior, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for Willem II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Willem II 1.9 xG, Excelsior 2.1 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Willem II 34%, draw 21%, Excelsior 45%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (69%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.44, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Willem II 1–2 Excelsior. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Willem II34%fair 2.97 · @2.75
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.40
Excelsior45%fair 2.23 · @2.30
4.00Expected goals
1.85Willem II xG
2.15Excelsior xG
69%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: Willem II 1.9 – 2.1 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excelsior to win✓
45%
2.23
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.44
1.55 ▲
Draw no bet
Excelsior (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Willem II +1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Excelsior to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Excelsior ahead at half-time✓
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excelsior / FT Excelsior✓
28%
3.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.79
–
Recent results
Willem II – last 6
DLLWWD
30 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs KV Mechelen
1–0
W
11 Jul
vs FC Eindhoven
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 6
WLWWWW
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Cambuur
4–0
W
1 Aug
@ De Graafschap
5–1
W
24 Jul
@ Heracles
5–3
W
18 Jul
@ NAC Breda
3–1
W
3.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Willem II and Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Willem II vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Willem II have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Excelsior 45%.
How many goals will there be in Willem II vs Excelsior?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Willem II 1–2 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Willem II vs Excelsior?
Willem II vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
