Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:30 WAT, Sunday 6 September: Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, played at Abe Lenstra Stadion. In the table, Heerenveen are 6th, upper half, on 21 points after 12 matches; AZ Alkmaar are 5th (upper half) with 23. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Heerenveen, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Willem II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
AZ Alkmaar, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 5–2 win over GO Ahead Eagles, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours AZ Alkmaar, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.5 for Heerenveen.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Heerenveen 1.2 xG, AZ Alkmaar 2.2 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Heerenveen 21%, draw 15%, AZ Alkmaar 64%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AZ Alkmaar to win (64%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Heerenveen 1–2 AZ Alkmaar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Heerenveen21%fair 4.68 · @3.75
Draw15%fair 6.60 · @3.80
AZ Alkmaar64%fair 1.57 · @1.75
3.38Expected goals
1.16Heerenveen xG
2.22AZ Alkmaar xG
66%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–18%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Heerenveen 1.2 – 2.2 AZ Alkmaar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✓
64%
1.57
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.52
1.44
Draw no bet
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
AZ Alkmaar -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
–
First team to score
AZ Alkmaar to score first
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Heerenveen – last 6
DLDWWD
30 Aug
@ Willem II
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs PEC Zwolle
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ Ajax
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs Twente
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs Volos NFC
3–2
W
25 Jul
vs OH Leuven
4–4
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
WWWWWW
29 Aug
vs GO Ahead Eagles
5–2
W
22 Aug
@ Fortuna Sittard
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Utrecht
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs ADO Den Haag
2–0
W
2 Aug
@ PSV Eindhoven
4–0
W
25 Jul
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
3–2
W
3.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar.
What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our pick is AZ Alkmaar to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
On our numbers Heerenveen have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 15% and AZ Alkmaar 64%.
How many goals will there be in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our predicted score is Heerenveen 1–2 AZ Alkmaar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
